Food Inflation Price Index by Robert Wayne Atkins, P.E.

Food Inflation Price Index
Copyright © 2008 by Robert Wayne Atkins, P.E.
All Rights Reserved.

The following Food Inflation Price Index is based on the Total Retail Cost of 60 different food items in a one-year emergency food supply for one-adult.
The original retail price for each food item was established on January 9, 2008.
The Total Retail Cost for the entire one-year emergency food supply on January 9, 2008 was $1,385 in the Southeastern United States.
The following table shows the increase in the Total Retail Cost of the one-year emergency food supply since January 9, 2008.

Month	Total Cost	Price Decreased On	Price Unchanged On	Price Increased On	% Increase for 1 Month	Annualized % Increase Since January 2008
Jan. 9, 2008	$1,385	-	-	-	-	-
Feb. 6, 2008	$1,469	6 Items	43 Items	11 Items	6.0 %	72.0 %
March 1, 2008	$1,506	0 Items	47 Items	13 Items	2.5 %	52.4 %
April 4, 2008	$1,515	2 Items	48 Items	10 Items	0.6 %	37.5 %
May 2, 2008	$1,533	0 Items	49 Items	11 Items	1.0 %	32.1 %
June 2, 2008	$1,540	2 Items	53 Items	5 Items	0.6 %	26.9 %
July 4, 2008	$1,549	0 Items	53 Items	7 Items	0.6 %	23.7 %
Aug. 9, 2008	$1,575	2 Items	50 Items	8 Items	1.7 %	23.5 %
Sep. 1, 2008	$1,571	2 Items	55 Items	3 Items	-0.2 %	20.1 %

Comments about "significant" price changes from August 9, 2008 to September 1, 2008:

A 1-pound box of Butter decreased in price from $2.76 to $2.54 per 1-pound box.
A 16-ounce jar of Jelly decreased in price from $1.32 to $0.88 per 16-ounce jar.
A 36-ounce bottle of Log Cabin Syrup increased in price from $1.77 to 1.96 per 36-ounce bottle.
A 15.5-ounce can of Sloppy Joe Mix increased in price from $0.86 to $0.92 per 15.5-ounce can.
A 26.5-ounce can of Spaghetti Sauce increased in price from $0.88 to $0.96 per 26.5-ounce can.

There was a net $4.00 decrease in the total cost of the one-year food supply from August to September due to the decrease in the price of butter and jelly.

Comments about "significant" price increases from July 4, 2008 to August 9, 2008:

A 10-pound bag of White Rice decreased in price from $7.58 to $7.36 per 10-pound bag.
A 64-ounce box of Instant Dry Milk increased in price from $15.98 to $16.77 per box.
A 15.5-ounce can of Sloppy Joe Mix increased in price from $0.86 to $0.92 per can.
A 24-ounce can of Armour Beef Stew increased in price from $2.08 to $2.28 per can.
A 1-pound box of Brown Sugar increased in price from $0.78 to $0.84 per box.
A 1-pound box of Confectioners Sugar increased in price from $0.78 to $0.84 per box.
A 16-ounce box of Baking Soda increased in price from $0.54 to $0.72 per box.

Comments about "significant" price increases from June 2, 2008 to July 4, 2008:

A 16-ounce jar of Generic Brand Grape Jelly increased in price from $1.00 to $1.32 per 16-ounce jar.
A 20-ounce box of Generic Brownie Mix increased in price from $1.24 to $1.38 per 20-ounce box.
A 5-pound bag of Generic White Flour increased in price from $1.73 to $1.88 per 5-pound bag.
A 1-pound box of Generic Butter inceased in price from $2.68 to $2.76 per 1-pound box.

Some companies are decreasing the amount of food in a package and then selling the smaller package at the same price as the original larger package. This gives the impression that there has been no price increase, unless you are paying careful attention to your package sizes. For example, the 17 stick packs of gum are being reduced to 15 sticks. Some of the dry cereal manufacturers are reducing the net weight inside the cereal box by 7% to 12%. And some canned goods are being reduced by 1/2 to 1 ounce per can. Granulated sugar has been available for sale in 4-pound bags and 5-pound bags for some time. Some dry spaghetti noodle products that were once available in both 8-ounce and 16-ounce boxes are now only available in 12-ounce boxes and they are being sold at the old 16-ounce box price.

Comments about "significant" price increases from May 2, 2008 to June 2, 2008:

First there was a price decrease for a 12.5-ounce can of Chicken from $2.58 to $2.25 per 12.5-ounce can. This reasonable price decrease helped to keep the total monthly inflation to a reasonable level.
A ten-pound bag of White Rice increased in price from $6.64 to $7.58 per ten-pound bag. On Januaury 9, 2008 the price was only $4.12 per ten-pound bag of White Rice. This is an 84% price increase in five-months, or an annualized 202% price increase.
A 32-ounce box of Instant Potatoes increased in price from $2.32 to $2.44 per 32-ounce box.
A 12-ounce can of Evaporated Milk increased in price from $0.84 to $0.92 per 12-ounce can.
A 32-ounce box of Velvetta Cheese increased in price from $4.42 to $5.12 per 32-ounce box.
A 1-pound box of Butter increased in price from $2.28 to $2.68 per 1-pound box.

In summary, dairy products had significant price increases across the board during the month of May.
It was also interesting to note that many packages no longer have a pre-printed price on the package by the manufacturer. This obviously provides greater flexibility to make price changes on short notice.
Non-food items also continue to increase in price. A package of 24-colors of sewing thread, where each thread spool contains 10-yards of thread, increased in price from $0.88 one year ago to $1.64 during May. This is almost a doubling in the price of this thread package.

Comments about "significant" price increases from April 4, 2008 to May 2, 2008:

A 7-ounce box of generic Macaroni & Cheese increased in price from $0.36 to $0.50 per 7-ounce box.
A 5-pound bag of Quick Grits increased in price from $1.88 to $2.44 per 5-pound bag.
A 12-ounce can of Spam increased in price from $1.98 to $2.14 per 12-ounce can.
The 32-ounce box of generic Instant Potatoes has not changed in price but they have been completely sold out for the past two weeks.
Although it is not included in the Food Price Index, during the month of April a 211-ounce box of Tide Laundry Detergent increased in price by 25% from $15.97 to $19.97 per 211-ounce box.

Comments about "significant" price increases from March 1, 2008 to April 4, 2008:

There were no significant price increases during the last 30 days. The price of two items decreased by a few pennies per container and the price of ten items increased by a few pennies per container. Overall there was only a $9 increase in the total price of the entire one-year emergency food supply during the month.

Comments about "significant" price increases from February 6, 2008 to March 1, 2008:

Some types of spaghetti noodles, such as regular and thin, are still available in both an 8-ounce and a 16-ounce box. However some items, such as Angel Hair Spaghetti, are now only available in 12-ounce boxes. The 16-ounce box price did not change during the month and that is the price used in the calculations for March.
The shelf label price for a 4-pound box of Morton Canning and Pickling Salt was increased to $1.57 but the check-out register still honored the old price of $1.12 per 4-pound box of salt. Therefore I did not show a price increase for salt for the current month. However it looks like the store is in the process of increasing their salt price so be prepared for a future increase in the price of salt.
A 15-ounce can of fruit cocktail increased in price from $0.88 to $1.18 per 15-ounce can. The prices of other canned fruits also increased.

Comments about "significant" price increases from January 9, 2008 to February 6, 2008:

A ten-pound bag of white rice increased in price from $4.12 to $6.64 per ten-pound bag.
A 16-ounce box of spaghetti noodles increased from $0.64 to $0.97 per 16-ounce box. The store still had some 16-ounce boxes at $0.97 per box. In the past spaghetti noodles were always available in 8-ounce and 16-ounce boxes. However, the size of some of the boxes was changed in February to 12-ounces at a price of $0.88 per 12-ounce box. These 12-ounce boxes appeared to be replacing both the 8-ounce and 16-ounce boxes. This smaller 12-ounce box was not used to determine the cost of spaghetti noodles for February. However, if this is a permanent trend and the 16-ounce box disappears, then the total price of a one-year supply of spaghetti noodles may significantly increase next month as well.
A 64-ounce box of dry powdered instant milk increased in price from $12.98 to $15.98 per 64-ounce box.

Revised August 9, 2008 - Updated all food prices for the month of August 2008.
Revised July 4, 2008 - Updated all food prices for the month of July 2008.
Revised June 2, 2008 - Updated all food prices for the month of June 2008.
Revised May 2, 2008 - Updated all food prices for the month of May 2008.
Revised April 4, 2008 - Updated all food prices for the month of April 2008.
Revised March 1, 2008 - Updated all food prices for the month of March 2008.
February 6, 2008 - This page added to web site.

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